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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still